CountryMetric

Most populous countries (2026) and what's next

By Aisha Bello · 2026-02-24

In short: India is the world's most populous country at about 1.45 billion people, having overtaken China (1.41 billion). The United States is a distant third at 340 million, followed by Indonesia (283M), Pakistan (251M) and Nigeria (233M). The big story is divergence: India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Ethiopia are still growing while China's population has begun to shrink. Figures are World Bank totals for the latest available year.

For the first time in modern history China is not the world’s most populous country. India holds that title now, and the rankings below are shifting fast.

Source: World Bank Open Data (CC BY 4.0), total population, latest available year. Retrieved June 2026.

The top 10

RankCountryPopulation
1India1.45 billion
2China1.41 billion
3United States340 million
4Indonesia283 million
5Pakistan251 million
6Nigeria233 million
7Brazil212 million
8Bangladesh174 million
9Russian Federation144 million
10Ethiopia132 million

Full list: most populous countries. Compare the top two directly in India vs China.

The divergence story

The headline isn’t just the order — it’s the direction:

You can see this on each country profile, which shows population growth (annual %) alongside the total.

Why it matters

Population shapes the size of an economy (it’s why India is a top-5 economy despite a low GDP per capita), the labour force, pension systems and political weight. Fast-growing young populations can power growth — or strain jobs and services if the economy can’t keep up.

Bottom line

India leads, China is now second and falling, and the future belongs demographically to Africa and South Asia. Track any country’s population and growth rate on its profile, or compare two nations head to head on the comparison pages.

Frequently asked questions

What is the most populous country in the world?

India, with about 1.45 billion people (World Bank, latest year), having overtaken China (about 1.41 billion). The United States is third at roughly 340 million.

Is China's population shrinking?

Yes. China's population has peaked and begun to decline due to decades of low fertility, while India continues to grow. That is why India is now number one and the gap is set to widen.

Which countries will grow the most?

High-fertility countries, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — Nigeria, Ethiopia, Pakistan and others — are projected to add the most people this century, while many high-income and East Asian countries face decline.

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Last updated: 2026-02-24